[GANA] / Nuclear_Weapons_Future - Jan., Feb., Mar. 2007 - archive

Nuclear Power sans Weapons (for Some)? (2)

Wed, 10 Jan 2007 11:00:00 GMT

Oliver Meier at Arms Control Association:

"NEWS ANALYSIS: The Growing Nuclear Fuel-Cycle Debate

A series of nuclear-related crises and a growing interest by several countries in nuclear energy production has revived interest in ways to prevent the spread of nuclear technologies that can be easily misused for the production of nuclear weapons materials.

Since the dawn of the nuclear age, governments have cast about for ways to manage the dual-use nature of nuclear technology. In the 1970s and 1980s, several proposals were discussed for creating an international framework to govern uranium enrichment and plutonium reprocessing, but none were implemented.

However, these concerns have taken on a new life as fears have grown that Iran may misuse its nuclear fuel-cycle facilities to produce nuclear weapons materials and after Pakistani nuclear scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan's clandestine nuclear black market network was unmasked...."

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Vatican: Nuclear Disarmament Remains Key Goal for Humanity (2)

Wed, 10 Jan 2007 11:00:00 GMT

EDWARD PENTIN, Register Correspondent:

"VATICAN CITY - Sen. Douglas Roche is deeply troubled.

After many years advising Pope John Paul II and now Pope Benedict XVI on nuclear disarmament, the Canadian lawmaker is visibly shaken by what he sees as indifference towards ridding the world of nuclear weapons.

Like many others for whom nuclear weapons are intrinsically immoral, he believes the world is living in a "second nuclear age" that represents the "single biggest moral issue in the world."

The central problem, Roche said in a Nov. 17 interview with the Register, is that nuclear arsenals are becoming permanent instruments of military policy, regarded as weapons to be actually used in battle rather than just as a deterrent to prevent others from attacking...."

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Kofi Annan: End "Mutually Assured Paralysis" (2)

Wed, 10 Jan 2007 22:00:00 GMT

John Burroughs at DisarmamentActivist.org:

"Along with other NGO representatives, I had the opportunity the other evening to say a few words at a reception here in New York honoring Kofi Annan, who will step down as UN Secretary-General at the end of this month. Speaking on behalf of the Lawyers' Committee on Nuclear Policy and the International Association of Lawyers Against Nuclear Arms, I had no difficulty being utterly sincere. I started by thanking him for his condemnation of the U.S. invasion of Iraq as contrary to the UN Charter. I went on to say how much we appreciate his eloquent, informed and incisive calls for progress towards elimination of nuclear weapons, most recently in a remarkable speech at Princeton.

The speech is a clear exposition of the need for simultaneous action on two linked fronts: to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and technologies for their production, and to marginalize and eliminate existing arsenals. Referring to the debate between proponents of "non-proliferation first" - mostly nuclear weapon states and their supporters - and proponents of "disarmament first," Annan said:...."

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Lecture by UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan at Princeton University (2)

Wed, 10 Jan 2007 22:05:00 GMT

Kofi Annan:

"Let me begin by saying how delighted I am to have been invited to give this address by a School named after Woodrow Wilson, the great pioneer of multilateralism and advocate of world peace, who argued, among other things, for agreed international limits on deadly weapons.

Princeton is indissolubly linked with the memory of Albert Einstein and many other great scientists who played a role in making this country the first nuclear power. That makes it an especially appropriate setting for my address this evening, because my main theme is the danger of nuclear weapons, and the urgent need to confront that danger by preventing proliferation and promoting disarmament, both at once. I shall argue that these two objectives -- disarmament and non-proliferation -- are inextricably linked, and that to achieve progress on either front we must also advance on the other...."

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The U.N.'s unfinished nuclear business (2)

Wed, 10 Jan 2007 22:10:00 GMT

Zia Mian at DailyPrincetonian.com:

"The United Nations General Assembly passed its first resolution in 1946. In the shadow of the American atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the highest priority of the new body was a call for plans "for the elimination from national armaments of atomic weapons and of all other major weapons adaptable to mass destruction." On Tuesday, U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan focused on the terrible fact that 60 years on, the world still has no plan to be rid of what he called a "unique existential threat to all humanity."

Instead of elimination, the nuclear danger has grown and spread from one country with a few weapons to a situation where the United States and Russia have about 10,000 nuclear weapons each and have been joined as nuclear-armed states by Britain, France, China, Israel, India, Pakistan and, most recently, North Korea...."

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Trident Replacement debate in Britain, full text of Blair's speech (2)

Wed, 10 Jan 2007 22:15:00 GMT

Abolition 2000 Europe:

"...From the BBC website.

Blair's Trident statement in full:

With your permission, Mr Speaker, I shall make a statement about the government's decision to maintain the United Kingdom's independent nuclear deterrent...."

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Stop Complex 2030! Say No to New Nuclear Weapons! (2)

Wed, 10 Jan 2007 22:20:00 GMT

the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation's Turn the Tide Campaign :

"Stop the Nuclear Bombplex

The Bombplex

The Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), which is responsible for maintaining the United States' nuclear weapons arsenal, is designing new nuclear weapons. These new designs are being prepared under the so-called Reliable Replacement Warhead Program (RRW). To begin industrial production of these new weapons, the NNSA has proposed an expensive, dangerous and unnecessary overhaul of the current nuclear complex. The resulting Bombplex will mean new facilities for new nuclear weapons development and maintenance.[snip]...[snip]New nukes in the US mean new nukes in other countries!

Designing and building new nuclear weapons will encourage other countries to follow the same path, ultimately leading to a new nuclear arms race. At a time when the United States is trying to convince North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons program, Iran to halt uranium enrichment and the rest of the world to abstain from developing nuclear weapons, we should not be taking actions that encourage other countries to develop or expand their nuclear weapons capabilities. We should be dismantling our existing weapons, not developing new ones...."

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Notice of motion from Senator Lyn Alison was passed unanimously by the Australian Senate on Friday 8th Dec 2006 (2)

Wed, 10 Jan 2007 22:25:00 GMT

John Hallam, foesyd4@ihug.com.au or johnhallam2001@yahoo.com.au:

"The following notice of motion from Senator Lyn Alison, was passed unanimously by the Australian Senate on Friday 8th Dec.

(Includes texts of Kofi Annan Speech and Nobels Summit declaration tabled by Senator Lyn Alison)...."

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NUCLEAR WINTER REVISITED (2)

Wed, 10 Jan 2007 22:30:00 GMT

Alan Robock, Luke Oman (1), and Georgiy L. Stenchikov:

"NUCLEAR WINTER REVISITED WITH A MODERN CLIMATE

MODEL AND CURRENT NUCLEAR ARSENALS: STILL

CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES

Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey

(1)Now at Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland

Submitted to Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres

November, 2006

Abstract

Twenty years ago, the results of climate model simulations of the response to smoke and dust from a massive nuclear exchange between the superpowers could be summarized as "nuclear winter" with rapid temperature, precipitation, and insolation drops at the surface that would threaten global agriculture for at least a year. The global nuclear arsenal has fallen by a factor of three since then, but there has been an expansion of the number of nuclear weapons states, with other states trying to develop nuclear arsenals. We use a modern climate model to re-examine the climate response to a range of nuclear wars, producing 50 and 150 Tg of smoke, using moderate, and large portions of the current global arsenal, and find that there would be significant climatic responses to all the scenarios. This is the first time that an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model has been used for such a simulation, and the first time that 10-yr simulations have been conducted. The response to the 150 Tg scenario can still be characterized as "nuclear winter," but both produce global catastrophic consequences. The changes are more long-lasting than previously thought, however, because the new model, National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies Model E, is able to represent the atmosphere up to 80 km, and simulates plume rise to the middle and upper stratosphere, producing a long aerosol lifetime. The indirect effects of nuclear weapons would have devastating consequences for the planet, and continued nuclear arsenal reductions will be needed before the threat of nuclear winter is removed from the Earth.

Excerpts:

The effects of the smoke cloud on surface temperature are extremely large (Fig. 2). Stratospheric temperatures are also severely perturbed (Fig. 3). A global average surface cooling of -7 C to -8 C persists for years, and after a decade the cooling is still -4 C (Fig. 2). Considering that the global average cooling at the depth of the last ice age 18,000 yr ago was about -5 C, this would be a climate change unprecedented in speed and amplitude in the history of the human race. The temperature changes are largest over land. Maps of the temperature changes for the Northern Hemisphere summers the year of smoke injection (Year 0) and the next year (Year 1) are shown in Fig. 4. Cooling of more than -20 C occur over large areas of North America and of more than -30 C over much of Eurasia, including all agricultural regions. There are also large temperature changes in the tropics and over Southern Hemisphere continents. Large climatic effects would occur in regions far removed from the target areas or the countries involved in the conflict. As examples of the actual temperature changes in important grain-growing regions, we have plotted the time series of daily minimum air temperature for grid points in Iowa, United States, at 42 N, 95 W, and in Ukraine at 50 N, 30 E (Fig. 5). For both locations (shown in Fig. 4), minimum temperatures rapidly plummet below freezing and stay there for more than a year.

In Ukraine, they stay below freezing for more than two years. Clearly, this would have agricultural implications. As a result of the cooling of the Earth's surface, evapotranspiration is reduced and the global hydrological cycle is weakened. In addition, Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon circulations collapse, because the driving continent-ocean temperature gradient does not develop. The resulting global precipitation is reduced by about 45% (Fig. 2).

Harwell and Hutchinson [1986] clearly described the impacts of nuclear winter. They assumed that there would be no food production around the world for one year and concluded that most of the people on the planet would run out of food and starve to death by then. Our results show that this period of no food production needs to be extended by many years, making the impacts of nuclear winter even worse than previously thought. Agriculture would be affected by many factors, including temperature changes, precipitation changes, and changes in insolation [e.g., Robock et al., 1993; Maytin et al., 1995]. As an example, Fig. 10 shows changes in the length of the freeze-free growing season for the third full growing seasons in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Such large reductions in growing season would completely eliminate crops that have insufficient time to reach maturity. Also, global ozone loss is likely [Toon et al., 2006], with effects on downward ultraviolet radiation [Vogelmann et al., 1992]. Further analysis of these and other effects, which is beyond the scope of this paper, is needed.

The major policy implication of nuclear winter was that a full-scale nuclear attack would produce climatic effects which would so disrupt the food supply that it would be suicide for the attacking country [Robock, 1989] and would also impact non-combatant countries. The subsequent end of the arms race and reduction of superpower tensions can be traced back to the world being forced to confront both the direct and indirect consequences of the use of nuclear weapons by the public policy debate in response to nuclear winter theory. While significant reductions of American and Russian nuclear arsenals followed, our results show that each country still retains enough weapons to produce a large, long-lasting, unprecedented global climate change. "Star Wars" (Strategic Defense Initiative, now the Missile Defense Agency) is not the answer, since it still does not work after 20 years of trying. Even if it worked according to specifications, it would let in too many weapons, such as on cruise missiles. Indirect effects of nuclear winter are greater that direct effects. There would be many innocent victims in non combatant nations. The United States and Russia are signatories to the Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty, which commits both to a reduction to 1700-2200 deployed nuclear weapons by the end of 2012. This continuing reduction of nuclear weapons by both parties is to be commended, but only nuclear disarmament will prevent the possibility of a nuclear environmental catastrophe. In the meantime, it is instructive to ask why Britain, France, and China have chosen nuclear arsenals of only a couple hundred nuclear weapons (Table 2). The threat of how many nuclear weapons dropping on your major cities would be necessary to deter an attack on another nuclear power? More than one? An immediate reduction of the Russian and American nuclear arsenals to the same size as those of Britain, France, and China would set an example for the world, maintain the nuclear deterrence of each, and dramatically lowering the chances of nuclear winter. The results in this paper need to be tested with other climate models, and the detailed consequences on agriculture, water supply, global trade, communications, travel, air pollution, and many more potential human impacts need further study. Each of these potential hazards deserves careful analysis by governments advised by a broad section of the scientific community...."

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Climatic consequences of regional nuclear conflicts (2)

Wed, 10 Jan 2007 22:35:00 GMT

A. Robock (1), L. Oman (1), G. L. Stenchikov (1), O. B. Toon (2), C. Bardeen (2), and R. P. Turco (3):

"Climatic consequences of regional nuclear conflicts

A. Robock (1), L. Oman (1), G. L. Stenchikov (1), O. B. Toon (2), C. Bardeen (2), and R. P. Turco (3)

1. Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey, USA

2. Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, USA

3. Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, USA

Received: 15 August 2006 - Accepted: 8 November 2006 - Published: 22 November 2006

Correspondence to: A. Robock (robock@envsci.rutgers.edu)

Abstract

We use a modern climate model and new estimates of smoke generated by fires in contemporary cities to calculate the response of the climate system to a regional nuclear temporary war between emerging third world nuclear powers using 100 Hiroshima-size bombs (less than 0.03% of the explosive yield of the current global nuclear arsenal) on cities in the subtropics. We find significant cooling and reductions of precipitation lasting years, which would impact the global food supply. The climate changes are large and longlasting because the fuel loadings in modern cities are quite high and the subtropical lasting solar insolation heats the resulting smoke cloud and lofts it into the high stratosphere, where removal mechanisms are slow. While the climate changes are less dramatic than found in previous "nuclear winter" simulations of a massive nuclear exchange between the superpowers, because less smoke is emitted, the changes are more longlasting because the older models did not adequately represent the stratospheric plume lasting rise.

1 Introduction

The casualties from the direct effects of blast, radioactivity, and fires resulting from the massive use of nuclear weapons by the superpowers would be so catastrophic that we avoided such a tragedy for the first four decades after the invention of nuclear weapons. The realization, based on research conducted jointly by Western and Soviet scientists (Crutzen and Birks, 1982; Aleksandrov and Stenchikov, 1983; Turco et al., 1983; Robock, 1984; Turco et al., 1990; Sagan and Turco, 1990), that the climatic consequences, and indirect effects of the collapse of society, would be so severe that the ensuing nuclear winter would produce famine for billions of people far from the target zones, was an important factor in the end of the arms race between the United States and the Soviet Union.

Now the world faces the prospect of many other states developing small nuclear arsenals. Toon et al. (2006) show that the direct effects of even a relatively small number of nuclear explosions would be a disaster for the region in which they would be used. Here we examine the climatic effects of the smoke produced by the fires that would be ignited by a regional conflict in the subtropics between two countries, each using 50 Hiroshima-size (15 kt) nuclear weapons to attack the other's most populated urban areas. Based on the analysis by Toon et al. (2006), such a conflict would generate 1-5 Tg of black carbon aerosol particles injected into the upper troposphere, after the initial removal in black rain.... "

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Atmospheric effects and societal consequences of regional scale nuclear conflicts and acts of individual nuclear terrorism (2)

Wed, 10 Jan 2007 22:40:00 GMT

O. B. Toon (1), R. P. Turco (2), A. Robock (3), C. Bardeen (1), L. Oman (3), and G. L. Stenchikov (3):

"Atmospheric effects and societal consequences of regional scale nuclear conflicts and acts of individual nuclear terrorism

O. B. Toon (1), R. P. Turco (2), A. Robock (3), C. Bardeen (1), L. Oman (3), and G. L. Stenchikov (3)

1. Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, USA

2. Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Univ. of California, Los Angeles, USA

3. Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers Univ., New Brunswick, New Jersey, USA

Received: 15 August 2006 - Accepted: 8 November 2006 - Published: 22 November 2006

Correspondence to: O. B. Toon (toon@lasp.colorado.edu)

Abstract

We assess the potential damage and smoke production associated with the detonation of small nuclear weapons in modern megacities. While the number of nuclear warheads in the world has fallen by about a factor of three since its peak in 1986, the number of nuclear weapons states is increasing and the potential exists for numerous regional nuclear arms races. Eight countries are known to have nuclear weapons, 2 are constructing them, and an additional 32 nations already have the fissile material needed to build substantial arsenals of low-yield (Hiroshima-sized) explosives. Population and economic activity worldwide are congregated to an increasing extent in megacities, which might be targeted in a nuclear conflict. Our analysis shows that, per kiloton of yield, low yield weapons can produce 100 times as many fatalities and 100 times as much smoke from fires as high-yield weapons, if they are targeted at city centers. A single "small" nuclear detonation in an urban center could lead to more fatalities, in some cases by orders of magnitude, than have occurred in the major historical conflicts of many countries. We analyze the likely outcome of a regional nuclear exchange involving 100 15-kt explosions (less than 0.1% of the explosive yield of the current global nuclear arsenal). We find that such an exchange could produce direct fatalities comparable to all of those worldwide in World War II, or to those once estimated for a "counterforce" nuclear war between the superpowers. Megacities exposed to atmospheric fallout of long-lived radionuclides would likely be abandoned indefinitely, with severe national and international implications. Our analysis shows that smoke from urban firestorms in a regional war would rise into the upper troposphere due to pyroconvection. Robock et al. (2006) show that the smoke would subsequently rise deep into the stratosphere due to atmospheric heating, and then might induce significant climatic anomalies on global scales. We also anticipate substantial perturbations of global ozone. While there are many uncertainties in the predictions we make here, the principal unknowns are the type and scale of conflict that might occur. The scope and severity of the hazards identified pose a significant threat to the global community. They deserve careful analysis by governments worldwide advised by a broad section of the world scientific community, as well as widespread public debate.

1 Introduction

In the 1980s, quantitative studies of the consequences of a nuclear conflict between the superpowers provoked international scientific and political debate, and deep public concern (Crutzen and Birks, 1982; Turco et al., 1983; Pittock et al., 1989). The resulting recognition that such conflicts could produce global scale damage at unacceptable levels contributed to an ongoing reduction of nuclear arsenals and improvements in relationships between the major nuclear powers. Here we provide the first comprehensive quantitative study of the consequences of a nuclear conflict between the emerging smaller nuclear states, including the use of a single nuclear weapon by a state or terrorist. Robock et al. (2006) explore the climate changes that might occur due to the smoke emissions from such a conflict.

The potential effects of nuclear explosions having yields similar to those of the weapons used over Japan during the Second World War (WW-II) are, in relation to yield, unexpectedly large. At least eight countries are capable of transport and detonation of such nuclear devices. Moreover, North Korea appears to have a growing stockpile of warheads, and Iran is suspiciously pursuing uranium enrichment - a necessary precursor to weapons construction. Thirty-two other countries that do not now have nuclear weapons possess suffcient fissionable nuclear materials to construct weapons, some in a relatively short period of time. For these nations, a regional conflict involving modest numbers of 15-kiloton (kt, the TNT explosive yield equivalent) weapons to attack cities could cause casualties that exceed, in some cases by orders of magnitude, their losses in previous conflicts. Indeed, in some case, the casualties can rival previous estimates for a limited strategic war between the superpowers involving thousands of weapons carrying several thousand megatons (Mt) of yield. Early radioactive fallout from small nuclear ground bursts would leave large sections of target areas contaminated and effectively uninhabitable. Because of the smoke released in fires ignited by detonations, there is a possibility that 50 to 100 15-kt weapons used against city centers would produce global climate disturbances unprecedented in recorded human history (Robock et al., 2006). An individual in possession of one of the thousands of existing lightweight nuclear weapons could kill or injure a million people in a terrorist attack.

Below we first discuss the arsenals of the existing, and potential, nuclear powers. We then describe the casualties due to blast and to fires set by thermal radiation from an attack on a single megacity with one low yield nuclear weapon. Next we discuss the casualties if current and projected arsenals of such weapons were ever used in a regional conflict. We then discuss the impact of radioactive contamination. Finally, we describe the amounts of smoke that may be generated in a regional scale conflict. At the end of each of these sections we outline the associated uncertainties.

We have attempted to employ realistic scenarios in this analysis. However, we do not have access to the war plans of any countries, nor to verifiable data on existing nuclear arsenals, delivery systems, or plans to develop, build or deploy nuclear weapons. There are obviously many possible pathways for regional conflicts to develop. Opinions concerning the likelihood of a regional nuclear war range from highly improbable to apocalyptic. Conservatism in such matters requires that a range of plausible scenarios be considered, given the availability of weapons hardware and the history of regional conflict. In the present analysis, we adopt two potential scenarios: i) a single small nuclear device detonated in a city center by terrorists; and ii) a regional nuclear exchange between two newly minted nuclear weapons states involving a total of 100 low yield (15-kt) detonations. We do not justify these scenarios any further except to note that most citizens and politicians today are aware of the potential disaster of an Israeli-Iranian-Syrian nuclear confrontation, or a Indian-Pakistani territorial confrontation. Moreover, as nuclear weapons knowledge and implementation proliferates, the possible number and combinations of flash points multiplies. The fact that nuclear weapons of the type assumed here have been used in past hostilities substantiates the idea that such scenarios as we propose are executable.... "

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Us India Nuclear Deal: Green Light in Congress, Red Signal in India (2)

Wed, 10 Jan 2007 22:45:00 GMT

Praful Bidwai in Inter Press Service article:

"Indo-US Nuclear Deal Done; Pleases Few

...

Inter Press Service, 9 December 2006

NEW DELHI - One and a half years after it was signed, the nuclear cooperation agreement between the United States and India has received highly qualified approval from U.S. Congress.

As passed by Congress Friday, the Henry J. Hyde United States-India Peaceful Atomic Energy Cooperation Act of 2006 (PAEC Act) is likely to sharply polarize opinion in India and meet with serious opposition because it contains many restrictive clauses and erodes Indian sovereignty.

The PAEC Act went through Congress after a conference committee of its two chambers reconciled the separate bills they had earlier legislated to waive U.S. laws that prohibit civilian nuclear commerce with a country that is a nuclear weapons-state but has not signed the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT).

In the last lap of its journey, the legislation underwent further changes to dilute its restrictive provisions under the pressure of the Bush administration even as the original four-page bill mutated into a 41-page legal text. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice personally intervened by writing a letter to Congress members urging them to accommodate India's concerns about the conditions sought to be imposed on it...."

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Investigate Israeli Nuclear Capacity Now (2)

Wed, 10 Jan 2007 22:50:00 GMT

Petition to Dr. Mohamed ElBaradei, IAEA was created by and written by Sergio Yahni (yahni@alt-info.org):

"To

Dr. Mohamed ElBaradei

Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA),

Following comments and remarks during the week of December 10th 2006 by designated US Secretary of Defense, Robert Gates, and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert concerning the fact that Israel possesses nuclear weapons, we demand that the IAEA commence an immediate and comprehensive investigation into this matter.

We are extremely concerned about the possibility that Israel, a country which refuses to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NTP), possesses the capacities to develop and export nuclear weapons and technologies.

Moreover, we are concerned that this high level and direct acknowledgement of Israel's nuclear capabilities will drag the Middle East into a nuclear competition, with all of its dangerous implications for the region and for the world.

Sincerely,...."

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Doomsday clock to move closer to nuclear Armageddon

Mon, 15 Jan 2007 07:45:00 GMT

AFP at spacewar.com:

"The world is inching closer to nuclear Armageddon, a group of prominent scientists and security experts said Friday.

The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists has kept a Doomsday clock since 1947 as a reminder of the dangers of nuclear proliferation.

The clock will be moved forward Wednesday at simultaneous events in Washington and London whose speakers will include physicist Stephen Hawking, the Chicago-based periodical said in a statement.

The Bulletin warned that the world had entered a "Second Nuclear Age marked by grave threats."

It cited the nuclear ambitions of Iran and North Korea; escalating terrorism; unsecured nuclear materials in Russia and elsewhere, the continuing "launch-ready" status of 2,000 of the 25,000 nuclear weapons held by the United States and Russia, and "new pressure from climate change for expanded civilian nuclear power that could increase proliferation risks."...."

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Call on UN Secretary-General - Don't Downgrade Disarmament at the UN

Tue, 16 Jan 2007 14:00:00 GMT

Reaching Critical Will:

"Call on UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon:

Don't Downgrade Disarmament at the UN

The Department for Disarmament Affairs (DDA) is the United Nation's institutional memory and stronghold of expertise on disarmament at the international level. Several countries have a shameful record on disarmament and would like to see the Department and its institutional memory and activity downgraded.

The new Secretary-General of the UN, Ban Ki-Moon, is purportedly considering subsuming the Department for Disarmament Affairs (DDA) into the Department of Political Affairs, reducing the stature of disarmament within the UN at a time when the problems posed by nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction, as well as small arms, are escalating.

Disarmament was recognized from the outset of the United Nations as an essential condition for global peace and security. The UN Charter recognized that an armed peace was not going to be a just peace, and that preparation for war was not going to bring peace. Nuclear disarmament was the subject of the very first United Nations resolution, and general disarmament is included in the mandate of the Security Council.

Characterizing the Department as of the "Cold War" era is inaccurate. The current Department is a post-Cold War phenomenon, created out of recognition that problems associated with weapons have changed but not decreased. In fact military budgets are soaring, wars are being fought over weapons and new treaty processes are forming. The disarmament agenda remains unfinished, which lies at the core of today's security challenges...."

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DOOMSDAY CLOCK - 5 Minutes to Midnight - Board Statement

Wed, 17 Jan 2007 20:10:00 GMT

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists - Board Statement:

"17 January 2007

We stand at the brink of a second nuclear age. Not since the first atomic bombs were dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki has the world faced such perilous choices. North Korea's recent test of a nuclear weapon, Iran's nuclear ambitions, a renewed U.S. emphasis on the military utility of nuclear weapons, the failure to adequately secure nuclear materials, and the continued presence of some 26,000 nuclear weapons in the United States and Russia are symptomatic of a larger failure to solve the problems posed by the most destructive technology on Earth.

As in past deliberations, we have examined other human-made threats to civilization. We have concluded that the dangers posed by climate change are nearly as dire as those posed by nuclear weapons. The effects may be less dramatic in the short term than the destruction that could be wrought by nuclear explosions, but over the next three to four decades climate change could cause drastic harm to the habitats upon which human societies depend for survival.

This deteriorating state of global affairs leads the Board of Directors of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists--in consultation with a Board of Sponsors that includes 18 Nobel laureates--to move the minute hand of the "Doomsday Clock" from seven to five minutes to midnight...."

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Declaration of the Indigenous World Uranium Summit

Thu, 18 Jan 2007 18:00:00 GMT

We, the Peoples gathered at the Indigenous World Uranium Summit:

"Declaration of the Indigenous World Uranium Summit

Saturday December 2, 2006 08:30 PM

Window Rock, Navajo Nation, USA

We, the Peoples gathered at the Indigenous World Uranium Summit, at this critical time of intensifying nuclear threats to Mother Earth and all life, demand a worldwide ban on uranium mining, processing, enrichment, fuel use, and weapons testing and deployment, and nuclear waste dumping on Native Lands.

Past, present and future generations of Indigenous Peoples have been disproportionately affected by the international nuclear weapons and power industry. The nuclear fuel chain poisons our people, land, air and waters and threatens our very existence and our future generations. Nuclear power is not a solution to global warming. Uranium mining, nuclear energy development and international agreements (e.g., the recent U.S.-India nuclear cooperation treaty) that foster the nuclear fuel chain violate our basic human rights and fundamental natural laws of Mother Earth, endangering our traditional cultures and spiritual well-being...."

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Release: Jan 27: National Peace March to Flood DC Streets

Thu, 18 Jan 2007 18:10:00 GMT

United for Peace and Justice (UFPJ) www.unitedforpeace.org:

"Release: Jan 27: National Peace March to Flood DC Streets

PROTESTERS WILL URGE CONGRESS TO STAND UP TO BUSH

Peace March Expected to be Among Largest Since War Began

MoveOn.org, National Organization for Women, Labor Unions Mobilize Members

Buses and vans coming from 30 states and 111 Cities

Salt Lake City Mayor Rocky Anderson, Reverend Jesse Jackson, Jr., Members of Congress, Military Families, and Soldiers to Speak

NEW YORK, NY -- Americans angered by Bush's plans to escalate the Iraq war will flood the streets of Washington on Saturday, January 27, in a massive national peace march organized by United for Peace and Justice (UFPJ). Marchers will call on Congress to listen to the voters, not Bush, by using its power to end Bush's war and bring the troops home. The last three national marches organized by UFPJ each attracted between 300,000 and 500,000 people...."

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Iran warns it's ready for nuke standoff

Thu, 18 Jan 2007 21:30:00 GMT

ALI AKBAR DAREINI, Associated Press Writer:

"TEHRAN, Iran - President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Thursday that Iran was prepared for any possibility in the standoff with the West over its nuclear activities - a tough reaction to a U.S. military buildup in the Gulf meant as a warning to Tehran.

His comments were an apparent reaction to the U.S. decision to deploy a second aircraft carrier, the USS Stennis, to the Gulf. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said the increased U.S. presence was to impress on Iran that the four-year war in Iraq has not made America vulnerable...."

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Sanctions could escalate Iran standoff: ElBaradei

Thu, 18 Jan 2007 21:35:00 GMT

Francois Murphy, Reuters:

"PARIS (Reuters) - The head of the U.N. nuclear watchdog, Mohamed ElBaradei, said on Thursday sanctions against Iran could escalate a standoff over its nuclear program and called for a new impetus to break the deadlock...."

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Gates: Iranians 'overplaying their hand'

Thu, 18 Jan 2007 21:40:00 GMT

ROBERT BURNS, AP Military Writer:

"MANAMA, Bahrain - The Iranians are "overplaying their hand" on the world stage in a belief that setbacks in Iraq have weakened the United States, Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Thursday...."

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Iran and the Bomb

Fri, 19 Jan 2007 18:30:00 GMT

Norman Dombey:

"Iran and the Bomb

Norman Dombey: Don't Do It

On 7 June 1981, Israeli aircraft bombed and completely destroyed the Iraqi nuclear research reactor Osirak. The French government, which had sold the reactor to Iraq, protested. Bertrand Barre, its nuclear attache in Washington, explained that the reactor posed no proliferation risk and that 'it was intended to be used . . . for testing or converting materials into isotopes, which have specialised uses in medicine.' The UN Security Council strongly condemned the attack as being 'in clear violation of the charter of the United Nations and the norms of international conduct'. The United States, however, objected to the imposing of any sanctions on Israel...."

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Kissinger, Schultz, Perry and Nunn call for A World Free of Nuclear Weapons

Sun, 28 Jan 2007 20:00:00 GMT

Kissinger, Schultz, Perry and Nunn call for A World Free of Nuclear Weapons

"Nuclear weapons today present tremendous dangers, but also an historic opportunity. U.S. leadership will be required to take the world to the next stage -- to a solid consensus for reversing reliance on nuclear weapons globally as a vital contribution to preventing their proliferation into potentially dangerous hands, and ultimately ending them as a threat to the world...."

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Chinese Test Anti-Satellite Weapon -and- China Criticized for Anti-Satellite Missile Test

Sun, 28 Jan 2007 20:45:00 GMT

Craig Covault, Aviation Week and Space Technology -and- Marc Kaufman and Dafna Linzer, Washington Post Staff Writers:

"Chinese Test Anti-Satellite Weapon -- 17 January 2007 -- U. S. intelligence agencies believe China performed a successful anti-satellite (asat) weapons test at more than 500 mi. altitude Jan. 11 destroying an aging Chinese weather satellite target with a kinetic kill vehicle launched on board a ballistic missile...."

"....China Criticized for Anti-Satellite Missile Test -- 19 January 2007 -- The Chinese military used a ground-based missile to hit and destroy one of its aging satellites orbiting more than 500 miles in space last week -- a high-stakes test demonstrating China's ability to target regions of space that are home to U.S. spy satellites and space-based missile defense systems.

The test of anti-satellite technology is believed to be the first of its kind in two decades by any nation and raised concerns about the vulnerability of U.S. satellites and a possible arms race in space...."

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China's Space Test Reminds of Urgent Need for New Space Treaty

Sun, 28 Jan 2007 20:50:00 GMT

Karl Grossman:

"China's successful test of an anti-satellite weapon last week brought me back to a conference I keynoted at the United Nations in Geneva in 1999 on "The Prevention of an Arms Race in Outer Space." I was followed by the first secretary of the Chinese delegation to the UN.

As a journalist who has written on this issue, I presented on a screen documents starting with the U.S. Space Command's Vision For 2020, issued the year before, envisioning U.S. space-based laser weapons zapping targets on Earth by the year 2020. It spoke of the U.S. military "dominating the space dimension of military operations to protect U.S. interests and investment" and "integrating Space Forces into warfighting capabilities across the full spectrum of conflict."

This "pushes us - all of us - toward war in the heavens," I said, because "other nations will follow leading to a new arms race and ultimately war in space. This all must be stopped before it gets completely out of hand."

The Chinese first secretary, Wang Xiaoyu, then declared: "Outer space is the common heritage of human beings. It should be used entirely for peaceful purposes and for the economic, scientific and cultural development of all countries as well as the well-being of mankind. It must not be weaponized and become another arena of the arms race."...."

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Missile Defence as a Step Toward War in Space

Sun, 28 Jan 2007 21:00:00 GMT

David Webb in INESAP Bulletin 25:

"....This reliance on space for command, control, communications, computer, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (C4ISR) has one serious disadvantage: space-based satellite systems are extremely vulnerable to attack from anti-satellite (ASAT) systems. Shortly before his appointment as Secretary of Defense, Donald Rumsfeld chaired the Commission to Assess United States National Security Space Management and Organization,[12] which concluded in January 2001 that the likelihood of an attack on U.S. space systems needed to be taken seriously to prevent a future "space Pearl Harbor."...."

"....The development of improved space tracking facilities on the ground (such as the upgrading of the Ballistic Missile Early Warning radars at Fylingdales and Thule and the development of the X-band radar) and in space (such as the Space-Based Infrared System, SBIRS) is integral to missile defence but could also be useful for ASAT capabilities. Interceptor missiles for the Ground-Based Midcourse Defence element of missile defence, designed to hit and intercept incoming missiles, could also be deployed against LEO satellites[36]...."

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Dual-Use in a New Security Environment - The Case of Missiles and Space

Sun, 28 Jan 2007 21:30:00 GMT

Juergen Scheffran in INESAP Bulletin 26:

"Advanced technology is an essential element of both the economy and national security. While the dichotomy between civilian and military technology has been more pronounced during the East-West conflict, the boundaries eroded after the end of the Cold War. In the past, the military was often thought to be a pacemaker in many fields of high-tech development, even though the spin-offs remained less than expected. Scarce resources and lack of public acceptance, combined with converging demand profiles, supported the dual-use of civil and military technologies, exploiting the ambivalence of science.[1]Dual-use refers here to those technologies that have actual or potential military and civilian applications. The strategy of "commercial-off-the-shelf" (COTS) development puts more emphasis on spin-in: taking advantage of economies of scale, a technology developed in the civilian-commercial sector is used for military purposes. Modern semiconductor, nuclear, laser, bio, computer, and communication technologies, to mention a few, are employed not only in the manufacture of civilian products but also increasingly in the production of weapons...."

"....During the Cold War, space technology was a synonym for technological progress and military dominance. Outer space became a testing ground for military innovation. The inherent ambivalence of space technologies made it possible to hide military intentions behind the label of "peaceful purposes," similar to the nuclear sector. The definition of "peaceful" remains controversial. While some insist it means "non-military", the interpretation of the U.S. government covered only "non-aggressive" acts, which allowed a number of military activities in outer space.[7] Consequently, three quarters of the superpowers' space objects served military purposes.[8] Since the early 1980s, the budgets for military space projects exceeded the budget of NASA, which despite its peaceful mission also pursued military projects. The 1991 Operation "Desert Storm" in Iraq was labeled the first "space war" because it involved the full arsenal of space systems for military purposes.[9]

There is a close affinity between civil and military space technologies, both of which are facing extreme technical requirements (e.g. high speed, extreme ranges of pressure and temperature, weightlessness, radiation). Space technologies have an inherent dual-use capability and enhance the warfighting capability of the major military powers, contributing to an increased threat to other countries. In many countries ballistic missiles and space launchers were developed and proliferated in conjunction. Satellites acquire and distribute information both for civilian and military purposes in telecommunication, navigation and monitoring. They became essential to carry out such operations as the 1991 Gulf War and the 1999 Kosovo War. The whole space infrastructure can be used for military purposes, including rockets and space vehicles, launchers and tracking systems, and testing and production facilities.[10]

Development of a missile defense system that involves weapons systems for space warfare would push the lines even further. The U.S. Space Command takes a leading role in promoting space dominance, a concept that is not compatible with peaceful uses of space under any interpretation...."

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America 'poised to strike at Iran's nuclear sites' from bases in Bulgaria and Romania

Wed, 31 Jan 2007 21:00:00 GMT

Gabriel Ronay (This item was first published in the Sunday Herald):

"PRESIDENT BUSH is preparing to attack Iran's nuclear facilities before the end of April and the US Air Force's new bases in Bulgaria and Romania would be used as back-up in the onslaught, according to an official report from Sofia.

"American forces could be using their two USAF bases in Bulgaria and one at Romania's Black Sea coast to launch an attack on Iran in April," the Bulgarian news agency Novinite said.

The American built-up along the Black Sea,coupled with the recent positioning of two US aircraft carrier battle groups off the Straits of Hormuz, appears to indicate president Bush has run out of patience with Tehran's nuclear misrepresentation and non-compliance with the UN Security Council's resolution. President Ahmeninejad of Iran has further ratcheted up tension in the region by putting on show his newly purchased state of the art Russian TOR-Ml anti-missile defence system.

Whether the Bulgarian news report is a tactical feint or a strategic event is hard to gauge at this stage. But, in conjunction with the beefing up of America's Italian bases and the acquisition of anti-missile defence bases in the Czech Republic and Poland, the Balkan developments seem to indicate a new phase in Bush's global war on terror.

Sofia's news of advanced war preparations along the Black Sea is backed up by some chilling details. One is the setting up of new refuelling places for US Stealth bombers, which would spearhead an attack on Iran. "The USAF's positioning of vital refuelling facilities for its B-2 bombers in unusual places, including Bulgaria, falls within the perspective of such an attack." Novinite named colonel Sam Gardiner, "a US secret service officer stationed in Bulgaria", as the source of this revelation...."

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Israeli Realism on Iran Belies Threat Rhetoric

Wed, 31 Jan 2007 21:10:00 GMT

Gareth Porter at IPS News:

"WASHINGTON, Jan 30 (IPS) - When Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert declared last week at the Herzliya conference that Israel could not risk another "existential threat" such as the Nazi holocaust, he was repeating what has become the dominant theme in Israel's campaign against Iran -- that it cannot tolerate an Iran with the technology that could be used to make nuclear weapons, because Iran is fanatically committed to the physical destruction of Israel.

The internal assessment by the Israeli national security apparatus of the Iranian threat, however, is more realistic than the government's public rhetoric would indicate.

Since Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad came to power in August 2005, Israel has effectively exploited his image as someone who is particularly fanatical about destroying Israel to develop the theme of Iran's threat of a "second holocaust" by using nuclear weapons.

But such alarmist statements do not accurately reflect the strategic thinking of the Israeli national security officials. In fact, Israelis began in the early 1990s to use the argument that Iran is irrational about Israel and could not be deterred from a nuclear attack if it ever acquired nuclear weapons, according to an account by independent analyst Trita Parsi on Iranian-Israeli strategic relations to be published in March. Meanwhile, the internal Israeli view of Iran, Parsi told IPS in an interview, "is completely different."

Parsi, who interviewed many Israeli national security officials for his book, says, "The Israelis know that Iran is a rational regime, and they have acted on that presumption." His primary evidence of such an Israeli assessment is that the Israelis purchased Dolphin submarines from Germany in 1999 and 2004 which have been reported to be capable of carrying nuclear-armed cruise missiles...."

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Next target Tehran

Wed, 31 Jan 2007 21:20:00 GMT

Dan Plesch in the Guardian:

"The evidence is building up that President Bush plans to add war on Iran to his triumphs in Iraq and Afghanistan - and there is every sign, to judge by his extraordinary warmongering speech in Plymouth on Friday, that Tony Blair would be keen to join him if he were still in a position to commit British forces to the field.

"There's a strong sense in the upper echelons of the White House that Iran is going to surface relatively quickly as a major issue - in the country and the world - in a very acute way," said NBC TV's Tim Russert after meeting the president. This is borne out by the fact that Bush has sent forces to the Gulf that are irrelevant to fighting the Iraqi insurgents. These include Patriot anti-missile missiles, an aircraft carrier, and cruise-missile-firing ships...."

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Dr. ElBaradei Calls for "Timeout" on Iran Nuclear Issue

Wed, 31 Jan 2007 21:30:00 GMT

IAEA Staff Report:

"In an interview with CNN among other international media in Davos 26 January, IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei called for a "timeout regarding the Iranian nuclear issue", saying he hoped talks could resume on the matter. He said the timeout would apply to both Iran's nuclear programme and the UN Security Council sanctions that took effect last month...."

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Air Force's role in Iraq could grow -- More flights are likely along the Iranian border, sources say.

Wed, 31 Jan 2007 21:40:00 GMT

Julian E. Barnes, Times Staff Writer:

"WASHINGTON - The Air Force is preparing for an expanded role in Iraq that could include aggressive new tactics designed to deter Iranian assistance to Iraqi militants, senior Pentagon officials said.

The efforts could include more forceful patrols by Air Force and Navy fighter planes along the Iran-Iraq border to counter the smuggling of bomb supplies from Iran, a senior Pentagon official said. He spoke on condition of anonymity because he was discussing future military plans.

Such missions also could position the Air Force to strike suspected bomb suppliers inside Iraq to deter Iranian agents that U.S. officials say are assisting Iraqi militias, outside military experts said.

The heightened role of U.S. air power in the volatile region is the latest sign of tension between President Bush and Iran's leaders...."

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Aiding the blockade

Mon, 05 Feb 2007 08:00:00 GMT

Hilary Wainwright at www.tni.org:

"Red Pepper, February 2007

From academic seminars to birthday parties, there are no end of ways to blockade Faslane, writes Hilary Wainwright

If you are going to hurl your body at the gates of nuclear insanity, do it in Scotland and cause maximum disruption to the Faslane base. The Scottish people are with you (over 70 per cent would like to see Trident scrapped, at the last count). And the local police mutter the threat of an impending arrest - ' I have to warn you ...' - like a schoolchild dutifully but mechanically reciting the school motto.

In my experience, at any rate, they even enter into the spirit of things in the cells, opening the hatches of our solitary cells for us to hear the singing of a fellow arrestee - or maybe this is a custom in the Dunbarton nick and they do it for the more tuneful drunks as well? These policemen and women would rather not be spending their time arresting poets and professors for, ironically, 'breaching the peace', or cutting samba players and others out of ingenious lock-ons - protesters locked together via metal tubes, or with their arms stuck into barrels of concrete, for example...."

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Kissinger, Schultz, Perry and Nunn call for A World Free of Nuclear Weapons (2)

Mon, 05 Feb 2007 08:10:00 GMT

Kissinger, Schultz, Perry and Nunn call for A World Free of Nuclear Weapons (repost)

"Nuclear weapons today present tremendous dangers, but also an historic opportunity. U.S. leadership will be required to take the world to the next stage -- to a solid consensus for reversing reliance on nuclear weapons globally as a vital contribution to preventing their proliferation into potentially dangerous hands, and ultimately ending them as a threat to the world...."

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The Nuclear Threat - Gorbachev's opinion

Mon, 05 Feb 2007 08:20:00 GMT

Mikhail Gorbachev:

"The source of this article is: The Wall Street Journal

The essay "A World Free of Nuclear Weapons," published in this newspaper on Jan. 4, was signed by a bipartisan group of four influential Americans -- George Shultz, William Perry, Henry Kissinger and Sam Nunn -- not known for utopian thinking, and having unique experience in shaping the policies of previous administrations. It raises an issue of crucial importance for world affairs: the need for the abolition of nuclear weapons.

As someone who signed the first treaties on real reductions in nuclear weapons, I feel it is my duty to support their call for urgent action...."

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"Disarm to Develop" -- Article on Nuclear disarmament

Mon, 05 Feb 2007 08:30:00 GMT

Francois Regis Hutin, director of OUEST-France:

"Disarm to Develop

Translated from French by Peter Low for ACDN

Great fears return periodically in History, but sometimes their causes become hidden and forgotten. We get used to this or that threat or danger, until another incident arises and sounds the alarm.

That is what is happening with nuclear arms. For over 50 years we have got used to them. The nations with them feel protected by their deterrent force. And the disappearance of the Soviet Union reassured us, even though Russia still possesses a fearsome arsenal.

But now two small players, North Korea and Iran, are shaking our confidence, especially because their leaders, located in zones of geopolitical tension, are rather unpredictable. Besides, if they achieve their goals, other states near them or even far away, feeling more or less threatened, will themselves want weapons of the same kind to deter their enemies. What then will become of international security? The possibilities of conflict will not decrease and each crisis will be a case where the atom bomb could be used deliberately by a fragile or irresponsible head of state, or be triggered accidentally on account of inadequate mastery of systems or false information.

All that confronts us again with the question not only of proliferation (and the need to halt it) but of nuclear disarmament...."

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Prominent U.S. Physicists Ask Congress to Forbid Use of Nuclear Weapons Against Non-Nuclear States

Mon, 05 Feb 2007 10:00:00 GMT

Newswise:

"Newswise - Twenty two of the nation's most prominent physicists asked Congress today to restrict the authority of President Bush to order nuclear strikes against non-nuclear-weapon states.

The physicists include twelve Nobel laureates, the current and three past presidents of the American Physical Society, the nation's preeminent professional society for physicists, and the chair of the Union of Concerned Scientists.

The physicists said their letter was prompted by "the rising tensions with Iran and the potential for military confrontation, as well as the public statement by President Bush on April 18, 2006, that a nuclear strike against Iran is an option 'on the table'."

It was initiated by Jorge Hirsch, a professor of physics at the University of California, San Diego, who last year put together a petition signed by more than 2,000 physicists that repudiated new U.S. nuclear weapons policies that include preemptive use of nuclear weapons against non-nuclear adversaries (http://physics.ucsd.edu/petition/).

"The very fact that nuclear weapon use is not being ruled out as an option -against a state that does not have nuclear weapons and does not represent a direct or imminent threat to the United States- illustrates the extent to which the Bush administration has changed U.S. nuclear weapons policy," said Kurt Gottfried, chair of the Union of Concerned Scientists. "The use of such a weapon against deeply buried targets would create massive clouds of radioactive fallout that could spread far from the site of the attack, including to other nations."

The physicists said in their letter that they "are firmly convinced that Congress should have a say on which course of action would best serve the American people on the use of the terrible weapons our profession helped create."

"Under present law, the President has sole authority to order the use of nuclear weapons," said Hirsch. "We could wake up tomorrow to learn that he has ordered preemptive tactical nuclear strikes against Iran's underground facilities. By not legislating on this issue, Congress is implicitly condoning and even abetting such a potential action by the Executive."..."

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Launch to test both missile and silo door

Tue, 06 Feb 2007 20:00:00 GMT

Janene Scully/Associate Editor at www.santamariatimes.com:

"For the first time in years, the countdown for a Minuteman 3 missile test will include blasting open the 106-ton silo door at Vandenberg Air Force Base....

COMMENT Ak Malten:

"The US still think they are - together with the _official_ Nuclear Weapon States - the only countries _Allowed_ to carry out missile test, like this one.

When I ask myself, would we hear official voices of protest against these missile testing of the US and other _official_ Nuclear Weapon States, by other countries like e.g. the NAM? How long do we have to wait??",

Ak Malten, Global Anti-Nuclear Alliance

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Sudden Chill -- Even a limited nuclear exchange could trigger a climate catastrophe

Thu, 08 Feb 2007 09:00:00 GMT

Sid Perkins at www.sciencenews.org:

"In the mid-1980s, at the height of the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union each had thousands of nuclear warheads, along with a multitude of aircrews and missiles, sitting on red alert to carry those bombs to their targets at a moment's notice. The philosophy of mutual assured destruction --the notion that any use of nuclear weapons would trigger a full-fledged exchange that neither nation would survive-- may have deterred any use of such bombs since World War II.

As devastating as a nuclear war between superpowers would have been, the after-effects probably would have been worse. In the 1980s, scientists estimated that a war in which each superpower used half its nuclear arsenal would have destroyed the upper atmosphere's ozone layer and, by filling the skies with dust and smoke, decreased temperatures at ground level in some regions as much as 40C for up to a decade. Scientists and antinuclear advocates dubbed this chilling result nuclear winter. The lengthy famine sure to follow probably would have killed more people than the brief war would have.

Today, the Cold War is over, the Soviet Union is no more, and the United States and Russia are dismantling their nuclear stockpiles. Together, the two countries now maintain about 20,000 weapons, less than a third of the number that sat at the ready in 1986.

But there's no reason to celebrate just yet, new studies suggest...."

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Senate seeks intelligence hub to shield satellites

Thu, 08 Feb 2007 09:05:00 GMT

Bill Gertz THE WASHINGTON TIMES:

"Congress is calling for the creation of a new National Space Intelligence Center to better spy on space-based and other threats to U.S. military, intelligence and commercial satellites.

A provision of the Senate intelligence authorization bill for fiscal 2007 would require the Bush administration to set up the new center within the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI). The plan was disclosed in a little-noticed section of committee's report on the bill made public Jan. 24.

The report stated that threats to U.S. satellites are increasing, a fact highlighted by China's recent test of an anti-satellite (ASAT) missile interceptor that destroyed a Chinese weather satellite. U.S. reliance on satellites for both national security and commerce is increasing and "a loss of any or all of these assets could do tremendous harm to our economy and security," the report said...."

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Legacy of Radiation Illness Stirs Objection to Nevada Bomb Test -- Blast Won't Be Nuclear, but Many Fear Contaminated Dust

Thu, 08 Feb 2007 09:10:00 GMT

Sonya Geis, Washington Post Staff Writer:

"ST. GEORGE, Utah -- When the baby boomers of St. George were children, radioactive ash from nuclear test explosions in Nevada regularly drifted toward the red bluffs of their town and fell like snow. They played in it and wrote their names in it on car windows.

The federal government reassured the townspeople they were in no danger as it detonated 952 bombs in Nevada over four decades. But thousands of people who lived downwind of the test site got radiation-related cancer, and the town of 50,000 has its own cancer-treatment center today.

So when word got out recently that the government wants to test a huge conventional bomb in Nevada, sending a mushroom cloud thousands of feet in the air, people in St. George felt an unwelcome blast from the past...."

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February 2007, No. 8 - A World Free of Nuclear Weapons?

Thu, 08 Feb 2007 09:20:00 GMT

John Burroughs, Executive Director Lawyers' Committee on Nuclear Policy:

"In this eNews:

1) A World Free of Nuclear Weapons - Says Who?

2) Disarmament Activism Alive and Well in Seattle

3) Saving the UN Department for Disarmament Affairs

1) A World Free of Nuclear Weapons - Says Who?

Here at the Lawyers' Committee on Nuclear Policy, we don't really like to be a voice crying in the wilderness. So we were glad to see the January 4 op-ed in the Wall Street Journal by George Shultz, William Perry, Henry Kissinger, and Sam Nunn, "A World Free of Nuclear Weapons." We were similarly glad to see the follow-up piece by Mikhail Gorbachev in the January 31 Wall Street Journal entitled "The Nuclear Threat."...."

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Scrapping medium-range ballistic missiles a mistake - Ivanov-1

Thu, 08 Feb 2007 10:00:00 GMT

RIA Novosti:

"MOSCOW, February 7 (RIA Novosti) - Russia's defense minister said Wednesday that the country's commitment not to deploy medium-range ballistic missiles was a mistake.

Speaking at a session of the lower house of parliament, Sergei Ivanov said the Russian leadership has committed a number of mistakes in the past that have weakened the country's defense capability.

"The gravest mistake was the decision to scrap a whole class of missile weapons - medium- range ballistic missiles," Ivanov said, adding that dozens of countries currently possess these weapons.

"Only Russia and the United States do not have the right to have such weapons, although they would be quite useful for us," the minister said.

The former Soviet Union and the U.S. signed the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) December 8, 1987...."

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Tlatelolco Treaty A Trailblazer for Non-Proliferation

Thu, 22 Feb 2007 08:30:00 GMT

IAEA Staff Report:

"Four decades ago today, Latin America and Caribbean nations drafted a treaty to keep their region free of nuclear weapons. Known as the Treaty of Tlatelolco it opened for signature on 14 February 1967 and has been signed and ratified by all 33 nations in the region. It was the first time such a ban was imposed in a densely populated area.

In a statement to mark the occasion, IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei said: "The Treaty set an important precedent in devaluing the role of nuclear weapons in its zone of application -- thereby contributing to regional peace and security by ensuring that Latin America and the Caribbean remained free from nuclear weapons."...."

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The Neo-Con Dog That Isn't Barking

Thu, 22 Feb 2007 08:35:00 GMT

Analysis by Jim Lobe at IPS News:

"WASHINGTON, Feb 16 (IPS) - For several weeks now, Washington has been abuzz with rumours that U.S. President George W. Bush is preparing to attack nuclear and other sites in Iran this spring -- rumours deemed sufficiently credible that lawmakers from both parties are hastily preparing legislation precisely to prevent such an eventuality.

The evidence cannot be ignored.

As cited by former CIA officer Philip Giraldi in the most recent edition of American Conservative, Bush's charges that Iran is supplying bombs to Shi'a militias to kill U.S. soldiers in Iraq; the seizure by U.S. forces of Iranian diplomatic and intelligence officials there; the deployment of two aircraft carrier groups with a flotilla of minesweepers to the Gulf; the supply of Patriot anti-missile batteries to Washington's allies in the region; the unprecedented appointment of a navy admiral and former combat pilot as the head of Central Command; the "surge" of as many as 40,000 troops into Iraq; persistent reports of U.S. covert operations inside Iran -- all suggest that Washington is preparing for a military confrontation, and soon...."

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Iran refuses to budge on UN demands

Thu, 22 Feb 2007 08:40:00 GMT

GEORGE JAHN, Associated Press Writer:

"VIENNA, Austria - Iran called Wednesday for talks with the United States -- but despite a U.N. Security Council deadline did not budge on council demands that it mothball its uranium enrichment program or face harsher sanctions.

Amid Iran's nuclear defiance, the U.N. nuclear watchdog finalized a report to be released Thursday that is expected to formally confirm the Islamic republic's refusal to freeze enrichment -- a conclusion that could subject it to tougher U.N. sanctions...."

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Pantex Nuclear Plant Safety Is Called Into Question

Thu, 22 Feb 2007 08:50:00 GMT

Ralph Vartabedian (original in The Los Angeles Times):

"Amarillo, Texas - Electrical failures have shut down the plant. The roof has leaked. Decrepit machinery dates back more than 40 years. Safety lapses led inspectors to levy fines twice within two years. And employees, under deadline pressure, complain they often are worked past the point of exhaustion

If this factory were producing medical devices or refining gasoline, the conditions would be serious enough. But this is where they work on nuclear bombs...."

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UN nuclear watchdog calls Trident hypocritical

Thu, 22 Feb 2007 09:00:00 GMT

David Blair, Diplomatic Correspondent:

"Britain cannot expect other countries to refrain from acquiring nuclear weapons if it upgrades the Trident deterrent, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency said yesterday.

Mohammed ElBaradei, who has led the United Nations' nuclear watchdog for 10 years, cast doubt on his own moral authority in seeking to curb the ambitions of countries like Iran, suspected of seeking nuclear weapons...."

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Possible legal consequences of the use or threat to use of Nuclear Weapons in a war or strike against Iran

Sat, 24 Feb 2007 22:50:00 GMT

Ak Malten, Global Anti-Nuclear Alliance (GANA):

"....If the US would strike - pre-emptively or not- or officially threaten to strike Iran with Nuclear Weapons then what could happen from the day after?

Let us first look at the consequences of the action and then at two possible routes States, organizations and/or individuals could take to bring the case to court.

Let this be a warning for everyone involved!!!! ...."

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The Redirection -- Is the Administration's new policy benefiting our enemies in the war on terrorism?

Sun, 25 Feb 2007 22:00:00 GMT

Seymour M. Hersh in The New Yorker:

"....Flynt Leverett, a former Bush Administration National Security Council official, told me that "there is nothing coincidental or ironic" about the new strategy with regard to Iraq. "The Administration is trying to make a case that Iran is more dangerous and more provocative than the Sunni insurgents to American interests in Iraq, when - if you look at the actual casualty numbers - the punishment inflicted on America by the Sunnis is greater by an order of magnitude," Leverett said. "This is all part of the campaign of provocative steps to increase the pressure on Iran. The idea is that at some point the Iranians will respond and then the Administration will have an open door to strike at them."...."

"....The Administration's concern about Iran's role in Iraq is coupled with its long-standing alarm over Iran's nuclear program. On Fox News on January 14th, Cheney warned of the possibility, in a few years, "of a nuclear-armed Iran, astride the world's supply of oil, able to affect adversely the global economy, prepared to use terrorist organizations and/or their nuclear weapons to threaten their neighbors and others around the world." He also said, "If you go and talk with the Gulf states or if you talk with the Saudis or if you talk with the Israelis or the Jordanians, the entire region is worried.... The threat Iran represents is growing."...."

"....The split between Shiites and Sunnis goes back to a bitter divide, in the seventh century, over who should succeed the Prophet Muhammad. Sunnis dominated the medieval caliphate and the Ottoman Empire, and Shiites, traditionally, have been regarded more as outsiders. Worldwide, ninety per cent of Muslims are Sunni, but Shiites are a majority in Iran, Iraq, and Bahrain, and are the largest Muslim group in Lebanon. Their concentration in a volatile, oil-rich region has led to concern in the West and among Sunnis about the emergence of a "Shiite crescent" - especially given Iran's increased geopolitical weight...."

comment

Ak Malten, Global Anti-Nuclear Alliance: "I cannot help it, but I have the feeling we saw this before. Old wine in new sacs. Was this not the reason and the way Saddam got into power - to counter the influence of Iran and so on....."

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The President of Iran has a Point: The World Can't Live With a Nuclear Double Standard

Tue, 27 Feb 2007 06:00:00 GMT

Ibrahim Ramey:

"WASHINGTON, DC - Feb. 26, 2007 (MASNET) It should be clear to everyone that the United States is making concrete plans for war with Iran. American naval forces are positioning themselves for air attacks on Iranian nuclear processing facilities, while the United Nations Security Council, under pressure from the U.S. and other Western powers, is contemplating a new round of even tougher sanctions aimed at the government in Iran.

Iran's defiance of both the United States and the United Nations is based on the contention, by Iranian President Ahmedinejad, that Iran cannot be forced to abandon their national nuclear fuel program if other nations are free to pursue the atomic energy option. In the view of the government in Tehran, the international community cannot arbitrarily limit Iranian access to this technology if other countries are allowed to have it.

Of course, the real point of contention is the widely-held assumption that Iran is using the nuclear fuel-processing program for the purpose of building atomic weapons. And that might indeed be true, because the technology required to process uranium as fuel for a nuclear power plant is not far removed from bomb-making. Currently, about 45 nations of the world possess this technology, and a few- India, Pakistan, and North Korea-have made the choice to join the nuclear weapons club.

For the record, as an original member of the U.S. Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons, I support the elimination of all nuclear weapons everywhere, including the more than 8,000 warheads in the stockpile of the United States. The same call for abolition must also include nations like Israel and North Korea, who are not signatories to the Non-Proliferation Treaty, and Iran, if indeed the nation is deliberately seeking to develop these weapons...."

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US Generals "Will Quit" If Bush Orders Iran Attack -and- UN Calls US Data on Iran's Nuclear Aims Unreliable

Wed, 28 Feb 2007 21:50:00 GMT

Michael Smith and Sarah Baxter, TimesOnline -and- Bob Drogin and Kim Murphy, The Los Angeles Times:

"US Generals "Will Quit" If Bush Orders Iran Attack

Some of America's most senior military commanders are prepared to resign if the White House orders a military strike against Iran, according to highly placed defence and intelligence sources....

UN Calls US Data on Iran's Nuclear Aims Unreliable

Vienna - Although international concern is growing about Iran's nuclear program and its regional ambitions, diplomats here say most U.S. intelligence shared with the U.N. nuclear watchdog agency has proved inaccurate and none has led to significant discoveries inside Iran...."

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Regime Change Is the Reason, Disarmament the Excuse

Wed, 28 Feb 2007 22:00:00 GMT

Scott Horton at www.antiwar.com:

"Is Iran making nuclear weapons? Is the United States preparing to wage war against them to prevent them from obtaining nuclear weapons? Our guest is Scott Ritter. He is a former Marine, United Nations weapons inspector, and author of an armful of books: Endgame, War on Iraq, Frontier Justice, Iraq Confidential, and his latest is Target Iran: The Truth About the White House's Plans for Regime Change.

Welcome to Antiwar Radio, Scott.

Scott Ritter: Thank you for having me.

Horton: It's great to have you on. The theme of your book, Target Iran, is that nuclear disarmament is the excuse - the policy is really regime change. Is that right?

Ritter: That's correct. The Bush administration has made it clear that when it comes to the Middle East, the policy is regional transformation. That's inclusive of regime change in nations that the Bush administration has identified as either being a rogue nation or a failed nation state, and the current theocracy that governs Iran has been deemed by the Bush administration as being rogue in character in part because, as the Bush administration articulated it in the March 2006 National Security Strategy document, Iran is the number one state sponsor of terror in the world today.

Horton: And so it's really not that our government is worried that they are about to have an armful of nuclear weapons then?..."

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Legal And Human Rights Groups Issue Open Letter Warning Of Illegality Of Any Offensive Military Action By U.S. Against Iran

Fri, 02 Mar 2007 14:30:00 GMT

National Lawyers Guild:

"FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

FEBRUARY 1, 2007 11:57 AM

CONTACT: National Lawyers Guild

+1 212 679-5100

Legal And Human Rights Groups Issue Open Letter Warning Of Illegality Of Any Offensive Military Action By U.S. Against Iran

WASHINGTON - February 1 - Today European, international and United States legal and human rights groups issued an open letter warning of the illegality of any offensive military action by the United States against Iran. Signatories include the American Association of Jurists, Center for Constitutional Rights (U.S.), Droite Solidarite (France), European Association of Lawyers for Human Rights and Democracy, Italian Association of Democratic Lawyers, Haldane Society (United Kingdom), International Association of Democratic Lawyers, Indian Association of Lawyers, (India), Japanese Association of Lawyers for International Solidarity, (Japan), Lawyers Against War (Canada), National Lawyers Guild (U.S.), Progress Lawyers Network (Belgium).

Open Letter to All Members of Congress, the Bush Administration And the U.S. Armed Forces From Legal and Human Rights Groups

There are increasing indications that the Bush administration intends to take military action against Iran. There are also indications that the administration would support military action by Israel against Iran.

The undersigned organizations issue this Open Letter to All Members of Congress, the Administration and the U.S. Armed Forces to reiterate their affirmative duties to prevent military action and to refrain from ongoing threats to peace.

Offensive military action against Iran would be illegal, as the United States is bound under the United Nations Charter to settle international disputes by peaceful means and to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity of any state or act in any other manner inconsistent with the purpose of the United Nations. (Article 2 sections 3 and 4). While Article 51 of the charter recognizes the inherent right of individual or collective self defense, such a right exists only if an armed attack occurs and is allowed only until the Security Council can take measures necessary to maintain international peace and security. Any other type of military action by the United States would not be in compliance with the UN Charter.

The UN Charter, as a treaty ratified by the U.S., is part of the Supreme Law of the United States under Article VI para.2 of the United States Constitution. If the President and Congress fail to abide by the law as provided in the Constitution they violate their sacred oaths of office.

Any military action against Iran in the absence of a military strike by Iran would be a war of aggression outlawed under Article 2(4) of the UN Charter.

If the United States or any other nation were to act outside of its UN obligations it would risk starting a war of aggression and committing a crime against peace. Furthermore, the sending of aircraft carriers combined with recent threatening statements constitutes a threat to wage a war with Iran. This is also prohibited by the Charter. Principle VI of the Nuremberg Principles also makes crimes against peace punishable under international law. Crimes against peace include: planning, preparation, initiation or waging a war of aggression in violation of international treaties, agreements, or assurances, or participation in a common plan or conspiracy to accomplish these acts...."

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Senior minister will defy Blair over Trident

Sun, 11 Mar 2007 19:30:00 GMT

Rob Edwards and Torcuil Crichton in the sunday herald:

"THE SENIOR Labour MP, Nigel Griffiths, is preparing to quit his job as deputy leader of the House of Commons because he is opposed to the replacement of the Trident nuclear weapons system.

He told a meeting of constituents in Edinburgh last week that he will not back Tony Blair's 100 billion Pound bid to renew the weapon, due to be put to a vote by MPs on Wednesday. He said he would vote "with his conscience" and he expected to be out of a job as a result...."

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New US nuclear warhead design encourages proliferation

Sun, 11 Mar 2007 19:35:00 GMT

By Source BBC:

"The Bush administration has selected the design for America's first new nuclear warhead in nearly two decades. US officials say the warhead will not add to the country's nuclear arsenal, but will replace existing missiles.

Critics have complained it sends the wrong signal at a time when the White House is leading efforts to curb Iran and North Korea's nuclear ambitions.

"This could serve to encourage the very proliferation we are trying to prevent"...."

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Message of the President of Mayors for Peace to the Trafalgar Square Rally (full text)

Sun, 11 Mar 2007 19:40:00 GMT

Tadatoshi Akiba, Mayor of Hiroshima and President of Mayors for Peace:

"The organizers of the anti-Trident, anti-war rally in London arranged for one message to be shown on the screen above the stage in Trafalgar Square, that pre-recorded message was from Hiroshima by its Mayor on behalf of the international network of Mayor for Peace. The 2020 Vision Campaign thanks especially the leadership of the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament for making this possible.

Friends, ladies and gentlemen, I am Tadatoshi Akiba, Mayor of Hiroshima and President of Mayors for Peace.

I speak to you from the hypocenter of the Atomic Age, the original 'ground zero.'

In the morning of August 7, 1945, as the smoke from the fires that had raged for 24 hours began to thin, the battered, bruised, and irradiated survivors were able to see what remained of their beloved city: nothing. The entire river delta was a charred plain.

Your great city could just as easily be transformed into a wasteland. Russian generals worked it out in detail during the Cold War; just as your military commanders envisioned the destruction of Moscow or Leningrad.

I am not sure exactly how the destruction was planned, but I can tell you this: no one consulted the Mayor of London, or Moscow, or Leningrad. Cities, by the hundreds, were taken hostage in the nuclear standoff. Well, those days are over . And I am not just referring to the Cold War; I mean the days of cities being docile hostages are over. Around the world mayors are mutinying against this devil's pact of Mutually Assured Destruction. I declare that Cities Are Not Targets!

Cities should not be bombarded with any explosives, much less a nuclear bomb. Nuclear weapons should not be use anywhere, much less in cities. It is a monstrous crime to expose a populated area to the effects of a nuclear explosion. Why then has Mayors for Peace been unable to elicit a clear answer to a clear question: "Do you explicitly rule out the use of nuclear weapons in lethal proximity to cities?"..."

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25th Anniversary Membership Drive - Mayors for Peace and the 2020 Vision Campaign

Sun, 11 Mar 2007 19:45:00 GMT

Mayors for Peace and the 2020 Vision Campaign:

"On the 24th of June, 1982, Mayor Araki of Hiroshima and Mayor Motoshima of Nagasaki called for a "World Conference of Mayors for Peace through Inter-city Solidarity" at the 2nd UN Special Session on Disarmament in New York. To commemorate that event, we are holding a membership drive beginning on the 25th of January 2007, and culminating on the 25th anniversary, June 24. The drive has two objectives:

1) Increase membership up to or over 2020 members (from about 1500 in 2006):

2020 Mayors for 2020 Vision!

2) Inform all members and potential new members about the Cities Are Not Targets project and the Good Faith Challenge, the organization's main line of work in the second phase of the 2020 Vision Campaign...."

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NATO Build-Up On Russia's Borders - Worst Treachery Since Munich 1938

Sun, 11 Mar 2007 20:00:00 GMT

Valentin Zorin at Global Research:

"....The arrival of NATO forces at the border of Russia translates into more than a threat to the Russian Federation. Russia will find a way to meet this threat. The American super-hawks had better remember that Russia remains a powerful country with impressive stocks of nuclear missiles...."

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Legal analysis of replacement/upgrade of the UK Trident system

Mon, 12 Mar 2007 13:00:00 GMT

Lawyers' Committee on Nuclear Policy:

"March 2007

To: Members of UK and Scottish Parliaments, State Parties to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, Civil Society Groups

From: Lawyers' Committee on Nuclear Policy 1

As a US-based organization, LCNP advocates that the US comply with the legal obligations not to threaten or use nuclear weapons and to negotiate their elimination in good faith. We make this contribution to the current UK debate because the US supplies the missiles for the UK Trident system, and because the UK now has the opportunity to set an example of compliance with those obligations.

We urge the United Kingdom to take the lead in nuclear disarmament by concluding that:

* Threat or use of the UK variant of the US Trident is illegal and criminal.

* The UK's unequivocal undertaking to eliminate its nuclear arsenal requires that the UK not upgrade or replace the Trident system.

A. Threat or use of the UK variant of the US Trident is illegal and criminal because the obligations to conform to the intransgressible rules and principles of humanitarian law cannot be reconciled with Trident's known and understood indiscriminate and uncontrollable effects...."

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We don't need Trident, we need a whole new plan

Mon, 12 Mar 2007 13:20:00 GMT

Martin Kettle in the Guardian:

"We don't need Trident, we need a whole new plan

In the nuclear debate, the government has dismally failed to come up with any fresh ideas on non-proliferation

Next week's Commons debate about Trident ought to be a great existential political moment - and in some respects it cannot avoid being one. In the past, the government kept an exclusive grip on nuclear weapons policy decisions. Next week, rather remarkably, the Blair government has ceded that power to parliament. It would be churlish not to acknowledge the change - and foolish for MPs not to make something of it...."

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Nato chief warns of split over US missiles

Tue, 13 Mar 2007 22:30:00 GMT

Daniel Dombey in The Financial Times:

"Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, Nato secretary general, has warned that the alliance risks being split between countries that would be covered by the US's proposed missile defence programme and other member states left exposed to missile threats from Iran...."

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The ABCs of Nuclear Disarmament

Tue, 13 Mar 2007 22:40:00 GMT

Alice Slater:

"The chilling announcement that our government is preparing to replace our entire nuclear arsenal with new hydrogen bombs comes on the heels of a call for nuclear abolition by no less a peace activist than Henry Kissinger, joined by old cold warriors Sam Nunn, George Schultz, and William Perry in a recent Wall Street Journal editorial.

We've been pushing our luck for more than 60 years since the first and only two atomic bombs to be used in war were dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, killing more than 214,000 people in the initial days, and causing numerous cancers, mutations and birth defects in their radioactive aftermath, new incidences of which are still being documented today. During these 60 years of the nuclear age, every site worldwide involved in the mining, milling, production and fabrication of uranium, for either war or for "peace," has left a lethal legacy of radioactive waste, illness, and damage to our very genetic heritage. Bomb- and reactor-created plutonium stays toxic for more than 250,000 years, and we still haven't figured out how to safely contain it.

For the world to have a real chance to deal with nuclear proliferation and avoid a tragic repetition of Hiroshima, it's clear that we must eliminate the bombs as well as the nuclear power reactors that too often serve as bomb factories for metastasizing nuclear weapons states. On the 20th anniversary of the Chernobyl disaster, Mikhail Gorbachev called for the phasing out of nuclear power and the establishment of a 50 billion dollar solar fund...."

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MPs vote to renew Trident

Wed, 14 Mar 2007 22:30:00 GMT

Deborah Summers, Helene Mulholland and Matthew Tempest in Guardian Unlimited:

"David Cameron helped save the government's blushes over the renewal of Trident tonight as the controversial proposals cleared the Commons with the help of Tory support.

Despite a massive Labour rebellion, MPs backed Tony Blair's bid to spend between 15bn and 20bn pounds on new submarines to carry the Trident missiles.

MPs voted by 409 to 161, majority 248, in favour of the proposals.

But around 85 Labour rebels were thought to have disobeyed a three-line whip and voted against the government...."

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Government left divided as Trident rebels defeated

Thu, 15 Mar 2007 06:40:00 GMT

Colin Brown and Ben Russell in The Independent:

"Tony Blair has handed Gordon Brown the legacy of divided government after suffering his biggest revolt since the Iraq war in the vote for a replacement for Britain's 65bn Pound Trident nuclear deterrent.

Ninety-five Labour MPs, including the former ministers Michael Meacher, Gavin Strang and Frank Dobson, voted against the Government on a rebel motion calling for the decision on Trident to be delayed. It was defeated with Tory support by 167 votes to 413. The motion in favour of building new Trident submarines was passed by 409 votes to 161. It exceeded the 72 who rebelled on student top-up fees some years ago.

Last night's vote means that Britain will be able to order the "design and concept" phase of the new nuclear submarines, but the Government has been split over the issue.

A minister who resigned from the Government to vote against the Trident decision, Nigel Griffiths, called on Mr Brown to change direction after Mr Blair by making Britain "a country for peace, not war".

"We have led the world in campaigning to meet the Kyoto targets, we have led the fight to eradicate global poverty. We must lead the world in campaigning for the eradication of the nuclear threat and we must lead by example," he said.

The Prime Minister now faces ridicule by the Tory leader, David Cameron, for having to rely on Tory votes to secure support for the continuation of a British-built nuclear deterrent...."

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Preventing War Against Iran

Fri, 16 Mar 2007 06:30:00 GMT

David Krieger, Nuclear Age Peace Foundation:

"The United States is deeply mired in a preventive war of its own making in Iraq with no clear way out. Now the Bush administration is making accusations against Iran and bolstering US forces in the Persian Gulf with two additional naval battle groups.

Why would the Bush administration contemplate a new war against Iran? How would a war against Iran in any conceivable way benefit the United States? There are no clear answers that explain the Bush administration's increased threats toward Iran. Yet, despite the president's statements that he will pursue "robust diplomacy," the possibility that the United States will launch an attack against Iran cannot be dismissed.

The Bush administration has continued trumpeting the fear that Iran may develop nuclear weapons, a technological possibility because of the uranium enrichment program it is pursuing. This charge, however, is not credible, at least in the near-term. International Atomic Energy Agency chief Mohamed ElBaradei reports there is no evidence that Iran is developing nuclear weapons. The CIA indicates that it would take Iran a decade to develop nuclear weapons, if that were its intention. Thus, the charge that Iran is on the brink of becoming a nuclear weapons state appears farfetched. The charge, and the lack of evidence to support it, is ominously similar to the spurious claims the Bush administration leveled against Iraq as a cause for initiating that war...."

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The Nuclear Elephant in the Room - Why No One Talks About the U.S. Nuclear Threat

Fri, 16 Mar 2007 06:35:00 GMT

James Dinwiddie at www.wagingpeace.org:

"Imagine a scene where a family is anxiously gathered in their living room to discuss a growing problem with their neighbors. It seems that one of their more troublesome neighbors has been threatening them, and lately set off a large explosion to validate the threat. Yet another of their neighbors has been threatening them with malicious mischief, and making ingredients for high-explosives in blatant contempt for the law. The neighborhood is in danger of spinning out of control. Several neighbors have been actively making and demonstrating explosives in contempt of the neighborhood's determination to disallow such dangerous and threatening activities.

The family discussion centers on what to do about these aggravating neighbors, and several strategies are on the table. One suggests legal action to confiscate or render the neighbors' high-explosives inoperative. Another suggests a punitive stealth attack to ruin the neighbors' explosives making capabilities. These strategies involve serious risks, because existing laws prohibiting the creation of high-explosives may not be applied or obeyed, and any one-sided attacks will demand extreme measures that will implicate the family in illegal violence. The family has importantly decided that it cannot speak to these troublemakers directly, but must rely on other neighbors to negotiate an acceptable surrender from their foes. The situation is at an impasse.

In our imaginary scene, one brave family member chimes in to remind everyone that this family is the original inventor and user of the high-explosives in question. Not only that, the family has, on numerous occasions, demonstrated its neighbor-threatening destructive capabilities by exploding scary weapons, first in the atmosphere and then below ground, in public displays designed to intimidate. The family has built and hoarded an enormous hidden arsenal of high-explosives that no one, even most family members themselves, is allowed to know about or discuss. The not-so-secret past of this family, our courageous protagonist reminds, includes the well-known destruction of two of their neighbor's homes, and the incessant, often-exhibited threat of destroying the entire neighborhood at their whim. He suggests that, just perhaps, the threatening posture of his own family may have created the situation with the neighbors, and by admitting and changing its behavior the family may finally win a much desired peace in the neighborhood...."

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The Greens | European Free Alliance in the European Parliament - Plenary Round-up 12-15 March 2007 - Nuclear disarmament and non proliferation

Wed, 21 Mar 2007 14:00:00 GMT

The Greens | European Free Alliance in the European Parliament:

"....Nuclear disarmament and non proliferation

Council and Commission statements - 14 March

The European Parliament adopted a resolution on non-proliferation and nuclear disarmament, which was a Greens/EFA initiative but signed by all groups.The resolution calls on the EU to take a leading role in reviving and strengthen the NPT (Nuclear Weapon Non Proliferation Treaty) and is critical of moves by Member States, like the UK and France, to expand their nuclear arsenals in contravention of the treaty. Both the Council and the Commission are urged to act together at an upcoming preparatory meeting for the NPT review conference in order to promote a number of nuclear disarmament initiatives all agreed upon in previous NPT review conferences but never implemented by the global community. The Council is also urged to break the deadlock on a verifiable Fissile Material Cut off Treaty and other international treaties such as the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty.

See :

- Greens/EFA press release...."

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European Parliament resolution on non-proliferation and nuclear disarmament

Wed, 21 Mar 2007 14:50:00 GMT

The European Parliament, Session document: "

B6 0093/2007

European Parliament resolution on non-proliferation and nuclear disarmament...."

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Britain To Replace Trident

Wed, 21 Mar 2007 15:00:00 GMT

Jeffrey Lewis at armscontrolwonk.com:

"Parliament voted 409-161 to support "the Government's decisions, as set out in the White Paper The Future of the United Kingdom's Nuclear Deterrent, to take the steps necessary to maintain the UK's minimum strategic nuclear deterrent beyond the life of the existing system..."

I confess that I do not fully understand Britain's system, but the process-laid out in the Ninth Report from the Defence Committee, Session 2006-07-offers other opportunities for intervention:

Suggested Timeline for Future Decisions...."

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Bangor an indicator of military intentions

Wed, 21 Mar 2007 15:10:00 GMT

GLEN MILNER, GUEST COLUMNIST in Seattle Post-Intelligencer:

"The Trident submarine base at Bangor, just 20 miles from Seattle, has become home to the largest single stockpile of nuclear warheads in the U.S. arsenal. In November 2006, the Natural Resources Defense Council declared that the 2,364 nuclear warheads at Bangor are about 24 percent of the entire U.S. arsenal.

Most of the warheads are deployed on "launch-ready" or hair-trigger alert status.

The Trident submarine system at Bangor has long been a leading indicator of U.S. military intentions. During the Cold War, the Trident system represented a major shift in nuclear war fighting strategy -- from mutually assured destruction to a pre-emptive first strike.

Today, new types of Trident missiles and plans for a new strategic mission advance the Pentagon's ability to wage pre-emptive strikes using conventional and nuclear warheads...."

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Study Details Catastrophic Impact Of Nuclear Attack On US Cities

Thu, 22 Mar 2007 12:00:00 GMT

William C Bell, Cham E Dallas:

Vulnerability of populations and the urban health care systems to nuclear weapon attack - examples from four American cities

William C Bell, Cham E Dallas

International Journal of Health Geographics 2007, 6:5 (28 February 2007)

[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF] [PubMed]

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NOW! THIRD STATES TO UK and IRAN:INVOKE 1899 HAGUE CONVENTION FOR THE PACIFIC SETTLEMENT OF INTERNATIONAL DISPUTES!

Sat, 31 Mar 2007 08:00:00 GMT

Francis A. Boyle: "

We have very little time left to act now to prevent a war. fab.

RADIO FREE EUROPE/RADIO LIBERTY, PRAGUE, CZECH REPUBLIC

___________________________________________________________

RFE/RL NEWSLINE Vol. 11, No. 60, Part III, 30 March 2007

IRAN CONDEMNS 'PROVOCATION' IN SOUTHERN IRAQ. The Iranian Foreign Ministry issued a statement on March 29 denouncing a "bold and provocative" act by British forces against its consulate-general in the southern Iraqi city of Al-Basrah, ISNA reported. The ministry communique stated that British military vehicles arrived near the Iranian Consulate building before noon on March 29 and "besieged" the consulate by repeatedly driving past or around the compound "effectively for an hour and 20 minutes," ISNA reported. The ministry said the number of British forces gradually increased, that they "violated" the consular building, and that there was shooting. Iran's consul in Al-Basrah, Mohammad Reza Nasir, told AFP the same day that British troops entered the consular building for 10 minutes and there was a shoot-out. The British Army denied its troops left their cars and stated that its forces were shot at near the consulate, AFP reported. There were no reported casualties. ISNA observed that the incident, following "the blatant violation of Iran's waters by two British ships," raised "doubts" on "the real motives of the British in the actions they have taken in recent days." The Iranian Foreign Ministry "immediately" protested with the Iraqi Foreign Ministry, ISNA reported on March 29. Consul Nasir told AFP he thinks the incident is related to the recent capture of British sailors. VS...."

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